The New Contrarian Investing Strategies

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The New Contrarian Investing Strategies

Автор(ы): Dreman David

06.10.2007
Год изд.: 1998
Описание: Книга показывает инвесторам как переплюнуть профессиональных мани-менеджеров и взять профит из потенциального паники на Wall Street… короче, «фирменный» стиль Дремана, который The New York Times обозвали как «остроумный и чистый как серебрянный колокольчик» (извращенцы!). Dreman показывает проверенный, систематичный и безопасный путь превосходить рынок, покупая акции хороших компаний, пока они не в фаворе. Основная мысль книги — это понимание психологии инветоров, которые имеют свойство слишком остро геагировать на любые отрицательные новости.
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Introduction [15]
PART I. WHY CURRENT METHODS DON’T WORK [25]
1. The Sure Thing Almost Nobody Plays [27]
On Markets and Odds [28]
Great Expectations [30]
The New Conquistadors [34]
A Titanic Clash [37]
The Journey Ahead [39]
2. From Technical Analysis to Astrology [40]
The Walls Come Tumbling Down [40]
The First Victory [41]
Hail the АН-Powerful Chart [42]
The Star Wars Technicians [43]
And There’s the Fringe [44]
The Technician’s Moment of Truth [45]
Destroying the Faith [47]
3. Bigger Game Ahead [48]
Value Investing [49]
Assessing Earning Power [50]
Cash Flow Analysis [50]
Accounting [51]
Price-to-Book Value [52]
Contemporary Value Techniques [53]
Visions of Sugar Plums [53]
Why Don’t They Work? [55]
Market Timing and Tactical Asset Allocation [56]
Momentum [57]
A Purposeful Random Walk [59]
The Three Faces of EMH [59]
The Power of an Idea [62]
PART II. THE EXPERT WAY TO LOSE YOUR SAVINGS [65]
4. Dangerous Forecasts [67]
A Portrait of Dorian Guru [68]
The Difficulties of Forecasting [73]
Predictable Expert Errors [74]
The Floor Becomes the Ceiling [75]
A Multibillion-Dollar Slip in Investment Theory [76]
Security Analysis—A Mission Impossible? [78]
How Much Is Too Much? [79]
A Surefire Way to Lose Money [84]
5. Would You Play a 1 in 50 Billion Shot? [88]
The Forecasting Follies [91]
Missing the Barn Door [93]
Analyst Forecasts in Booms and Busts [97]
Was Forecasting in the Past Any Better? [99]
What Does It All Mean? [100]
Hey, I’m Special [102]
Some Causes of Forecasting Errors [102]
Career Pressures and Forecasts [104]
Psychological Influences on Analysts’Decisions [107]
Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside [109]
The Forecasters’ Plague [111]
Analyst Оverconfidence [114]
6. Nasty Surprises [117]
Paying Through the Nose for Growth [118]
The Many Faces of Surprise [119]
What the Record Shows [119]
Toute la Difference [123]
The Effect of Positive Surprises [124]
Calling In the Chips [126]
Pulling the Trigger [129]
Reinforcing Events [132]
The Effects of Surprise Over Time [134]
A Surprising Opportunity [136]
PART III. THE WORLD OF CONTRARIAN INVESTING [1 37]
7. Contrarian Investment Strategies [139]
The World Turned Upside Down [140]
In Visibility We Trust [141]
In the Beginning … [142]
More Nasty, Ugly Little Facts [145]
Whatever Took So Long? [149]
The Great Discovery [151]
The Last Nail [154]
Summing it Up [158]
8. Boosting Portfolio Profits [160]
Strategy # 1: Low P/E [160]
Strategies #2 and #3: Price-to-Cash Flow and Price-to-Book Value [163]
Strategy #4: Price-to-Dividend [167]
Contrarian Stock Selection: A-B-C Rules [169]
Should We Abandon Security Analysis Entirely? [170]
An Eclectic Approach [171]
To the Trenches [174]
Using the Low P/E Strategy [174]
The World of GARP [178]
Using Low Price-to-Cash Flow [178]
Time for a Miss [181]
Price-to-Book Value Strategies [182]
Price-to-Dividend [183]
A Beneficial Side Effect [186]
An Overview of the Eclectic Approach [186]
Owning the Casino [186]
Walking Away from the Chips [190]
9. A New, Powerful Contrarian Approach [193]
Contrarian Strategies Within Industries [194]
Why Buy the Cheapest Stocks in an Industry? [198]
The Defensive Team: Part II [200]
Buy-and-Weed Strategies [201]
Where Do I Get My Statistics? [202]
What Contrarian Strategies Won’t Do for You [204]
Alternatives to Contrarian Strategies [204]
Mutual Funds [204]
Closed-End Investment Companies [205]
Foreign Country Funds: Myth and Reality [205]
When to Sell? [210]
10. Knowing Your Market Odds [214]
Improving Your Market Odds [215]
In Simplification We Believe [215]
It Ain’ t Necessarily So [216]
The Law of Small Numbers [221]
A Variation of the Previous Problem [224]
Regression to the Mean [227]
If It Looks Good, It Must Taste Good [230]
On Shark Attacks and Falling Airplane Parts [231]
Anchoring and Hindsight Biases [233]
Decisional Biases and Market Fashions [234]
Shortcuts to Disaster [236]
11. Profiting from Investor Overreaction [238]
The Pervasiveness of Investor Overreaction [239]
Junk Bonds: A Money-Making Overreaction [243]
Earnings Surprise: Another Profitable Overreaction [245]
The Investor Overreaction Hypothesis [246]
Is It a Horse? [248]
The Dark Side of the Moon [253]
Other Voices [256]
Regression to the Mean Revisited [256]
PART IV. INVESTING IN THE 21ST Century [259]
12. Crisis Investing [261]
First: Know Your Enemy [261]
Symptoms of a Crisis [264]
Essentials for Crisis Investing [266]
Hedging Your Bets [268]
Panic [269]
Value Lifelines in a Crisis [271]
What Are the Risks of Crisis Investing? [275]
The Psychology of Risk [277]
13. An Investment for All Seasons [279]
Stock Returns Over Time [280]
The Investment Revolution [285]
Fighting the Last War [287]
Enter the Second Horseman [290]
A New Investment Era [292]
Investing in Doomsday [292]
To Sum Up [295]
14. What Is Risk? [297]
It Seemed So Simple [297]
Other Risk Measurements [303]
The Riskless Investments [303]
Toward a Realistic Definition of Risk [305]
Are Stocks More Risky? [305]
Is There Something Wrong with This Picture? [309]
A Better Way of Measuring Risk [310]
15. Small Stocks, Nasdaq, and Other
Market Pitfalls [316]
The Small Company Blues [317]
An Attack on Contrarian Strategies [325]
We Have a Tie-In to Mecca [327]
Should You Give Up on Small Stocks? [329]
Beware of Nasdaq and Small Stock Trading Costs [333]
The Index Trap [339]
Tailor-Made Performance Records [341]
PART V. PSYCHOLOGY AND MARKETS [345]
16. The Zany World of Rationality [347]
The Former Comrades Meet the Market [348]
You Can Never Go Wrong in Real Estate [351]
The Madness of Crowds [354]
Some Common Features of Manias [355]
The Characteristics of a Crowd [356]
The World of Social Reality [357]
The Reinforcement of Group Opinion [359]
How Not to Get Rich [361]
Here We Go Again [365]
Devastating Changes in Perception [369]
Not Very Different [369]
17. Beyond Efficient Markets [373]
MPT Assumptions Revisited [375]
Problems, So Many Problems [375]
The Crisis of Modern Economics [377]
Correlations Unlimited [380]
The Vanishing Support for EMH [381]
Those Dreadful Anomalies [383]
The Jury Is Out Again [385]
More of the Same [389]
Other Evidence Against Efficiency [391]
A Leap of Faith [392]
The Problem of Interpreting Information [393]
Summing It All Up [394]
Towers Built in Sand [394]
The New Paradigm [397]
Appendix A: Modern Portfolio Theory [399]
The Capital Asset Pricing Model—CAPM [400]
Assumptions Underlying the Capital Asset Pricing Model [401]
Appendix B: Contrarian Investment Rules [405]
Appendix C: Glossary of Terms [411]
Notes [421]
Index [449]

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